Model
Regression output, variables, limitations, and sources.
Variables used
- Age
- GP
- Points/60
- iCF/60
- iSCF/60
- iHDCF/60
- Giveaways/60
- Takeaways/60
- Hits/60
- Shots Blocked/60
Limitations
- The model estimates performance-based value from public box-score and rate statistics only.
- It does not fully capture role, deployment, injuries, leverage, team context, contract term, free-agent timing, or cap environment.
- Performance Value should be interpreted as a model estimate of last season's production relative to cap hit, not a definitive player valuation.
- The ELC toggle refreshes app rankings after filtering entry-level contracts, but it does not retrain the regression.
Regression summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Multiple R | 0.6852330020133792 |
| R Square | 0.4695442670482678 |
| Adjusted R Square | 0.4625553904612884 |
| Standard Error | 0.6556951786930482 |
| Observations | 770.0 |
Coefficients
| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t Stat | p-value | Lower 95 | Upper 95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 11.3706 | 0.2206 | 51.54 | 4.0361602667531134e-250 | 10.9375 | 11.8036 |
| Age | 0.0736 | 0.0053 | 13.84 | 5.036775094349117e-39 | 0.0631 | 0.0840 |
| GP | 0.0106 | 0.0011 | 9.59 | 1.2644199357880532e-20 | 0.0085 | 0.0128 |
| Points/60 | 0.2490 | 0.0400 | 6.23 | 7.773784656118253e-10 | 0.1706 | 0.3275 |
| iCF/60 | 0.0307 | 0.0121 | 2.54 | 0.0113951489375411 | 0.0070 | 0.0545 |
| iSCF/60 | 0.0235 | 0.0304 | 0.77 | 0.4411655953147139 | -0.0363 | 0.0832 |
| iHDCF/60 | -0.0766 | 0.0365 | -2.10 | 0.0363565642568899 | -0.1483 | -0.0049 |
| Giveaways/60 | -0.0222 | 0.0279 | -0.80 | 0.4260788196792704 | -0.0769 | 0.0325 |
| Takeaways/60 | 0.0273 | 0.0485 | 0.56 | 0.5732533132711557 | -0.0679 | 0.1226 |
| Hits/60 | -0.0324 | 0.0057 | -5.68 | 1.9607040062449348e-08 | -0.0436 | -0.0212 |
| Shots Blocked/60 | 0.0428 | 0.0218 | 1.97 | 0.0494574285240364 | 0.0001 | 0.0856 |
Data sources
Built from the project workbook supplied by the author. NHL performance statistics source was https://www.naturalstattrick.com. Contract/cap-hit source, agent source, and GM/signing data source was https://www.puckpedia.com.